Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
